One thing is certain about 97th Academy Awards: the last year delivered some truly outstanding films. While there was no Barbenheimer-level phenomenon, plenty of movies deserved—and received—recognition. The Academy has done a commendable job selecting a strong slate of nominees, and this year’s race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, with several categories too close to call.
Hollywood’s biggest night should have some great surprises.
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Will Win: This might be the easiest award to predict. Kieran Culkin has been winning every major award leading up to Oscar night. His performance as Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain is a great role, and his recognition is well deserved.
The other four actors had good performances, with Borisov and Norton really shining, but this is Culkin’s Oscar to lose. And he won’t.
Should win: Culkin
Who should have been nominated: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rosselini – Conclave
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Will Win: Zoe Saldana. Like the Supporting Actor category, this one is locked. Saldana has been racking up awards this entire season. Fortunately, she hasn’t been affected by the ‘Karla Sofia Gascon’ curse.
Barbaro deserves recognition for her strong performance in A Complete Unknown. Grande will most likely be nominated for Wicked Part Two, aka Wicked: For Good. There has also been minimal discussion for Felicity Jones or Isabella Rossellini. Saldana was a force on the screen. I still remember getting a text from my friend who saw it at Cannes. “Zoe Saldana sings . . . who knew?” Now, everyone knows, and after Sunday, she will have the Oscar as well.
Should win: Zoe Saldana
Who should have been nominated: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys and Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Adrian Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastien Stan – The Apprentice
Will Win: Many people seem to forget that Sebastian Stan, a double nominee at this year’s Golden Globe Awards, won for a film called A Different Man. He is not going to win an Academy Award for Donald Trump. I have a better chance of winning Lotto Max . . . twice.
Colman Domingo was exceptional in Sing Sing, but the problem is not many people saw it, and certainly not enough people are talking about it. This is the second year in a row he has been nominated for Best Actor. It won’t be the last.
Ralph Fiennes was great in Conclave, but again, he doesn’t have enough momentum coming into Oscar weekend.
This will come down to two actors, Timothee Chalamet and Adrien Brody.
Brody was fantastic in The Brutalist. At times, it seems he was giving a masterclass in acting with the emotion he poured into the role. Timothee Chalamet became Bob Dylan. He delivered the second-best performance on screen in 2024—We’ll get to the first in a moment. I have been raving about his performance since I saw it, and his win at the Screen Actors Guild made the night feel right.
Should win: Chalamet
Who should have been nominated: Hugh Grant, Heretic
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Will Win: We know the Wicked sequel is coming out this year, so Erivo’s EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) will have to wait. Karla Sofia Gascon and her hateful tweets have eliminated chances she would have won in winning this award. Fernanda Torres was exceptional in I’m Still Here, but she is being outshone by the two frontrunners in this category.
Demi ‘Don’t call it a comeback’ Moore is having a renaissance. Her award-season campaign has been nothing short of brilliant. From her moving acceptance speech at the Golden Globe Awards to her press release after being nominated, where she thanked the Academy, her fellow nominees and firefighters dealing with the LA fires . . . all she hits are home runs. Now, I don’t suggest any of this was insincere, but she knows how to campaign.
It isn’t lost also that she stars in a movie that fights gender dynamics and ageing in Hollywood.
While the movie she stars in is more impressive than her performance, Hollywood loves a good comeback story.
Should win: Mikey Madison delivered the best performance of the year in Anora. Her range of emotions was exquisite. Respectfully, nothing she had done previously in her career could prepare us for her performance in this film.
She eats up every scene she is in right up until the final five minutes, when she leaves us in awe.
Demi Moore seems posed to win this award but Madison should be the name that is read from Cillian Murphy’s lips.
Who should have been nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Cobet
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold
Emilia Perez – Jaques Audiard
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Will Win: Sean Baker
Should win: As much as I adore and respect Sean Baker, if Coralie Fargeat’s name is called, I wouldn’t be disappointed. Her vision in The Substance made it a film that stood out from pretty much every other film released during the eligibility period.
Who should have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Will Win: Anora. This is a great selection of films, and some should be in the discussion more, but due to lack of promotion, they aren’t. Nickel Boys is an outstanding film that has not had a huge surge of promotion behind it despite being critically acclaimed and winning a screenplay award at the Writers Guild Awards.
Dune: Part Two, while being a fantastic film, came out way too early in the year, making it easy to sidestep it this awards season.
A Complete Unknown has great performances but isn’t an overall amazing film.
Emilia Perez was looking like the one to beat until Karla Sofia Gascon detailed that when her hateful tweets came to the surface.
Fresh off of its win at BAFTA’s Conclave could pull an upset, but its momentum is minimal.
The Substance is an outstanding film, but it might be too much for some Academy voters to stomach.
The Brutalist seemed to have momentum after its win at The Golden Globe awards, but that died off.
Wicked is getting its sequel in a few months, so the feeling of ‘maybe next year’ is present.
I’m Still Here is a well-made film, but its chances of a Best Picture win are slim to none.
Anora, the film that won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, has a lot of momentum, winning the Producers Guild Award as well as top awards at the Critics Choice and Independent Spirit Awards.
Anora, like all of Baker’s films, focuses on a marginalized community and shines a light on them. This film isn’t simply about ‘sex workers and Russians’ as some dismiss it, but about changing your life and hoping to achieve dreams, but told in a very Baker way.
Should win: Anora
Who should have been nominated: Flow
Animated Feature Film
Animated Short Film
Cinematography
Costume Design
Documentary Feature Film
Documentary Short Film
Film Editing
International Feature Film
Makeup and Hairstyling
Music (Original Score)
Music (Original Song)
The Journey from The Six Triple Eight (for the love of God, give Dianne Warren an Academy Award . . . 16 nominations . . . . she’s the Susan Lucci of the Oscars—ok, rant over)
Production Design
Live Action Short Film
Sound
Visual Effects
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Watch the 97th Academy Awards live on CTV or stream on Hulu on Sunday, March 2, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
