Battle of Ontario Should be Worth Waiting For

In the classic(?) words of the legendary(??) Spice Girls: Tell me what you want, what you really, really want.

And here we are.

You wanted the provincial gob smacker? You got it.

Upon further consideration, if you’re rooting for the Ottawa Senators, you’re more than happy with the card pull. If you’re rooting for the Toronto Maple Leafs, this could get sticky but it’s likely the best draw you could make.

Either way, laissez les bon temps rouler.

Let’s look at some of the factors that will play roles during the next two weeks of chaos.

EXPECTATIONS:

This should be entitled Great Expectations (or better yet – A Tale of Two Cities). Take your pick, Charles Dickens won’t mind you using his stories, I’m sure.

This is a category that belongs almost entirely to the Torontonians, and not for good reasons. The Leafs history of banana-slipping during the past decade – just one series win despite making it to the post-season all 10 of those years – is tough to stomach when you reside in the centre of the hockey universe.

Tough?

Downright gut-broiling.

Ironically, one of the last times in the recent history of the club where it made any noise playoff-wise was against its upcoming opponent. The Leafs owned Ottawa in the early 2000s, ousting the Senators four times in five seasons.

Anyone remember Gary Roberts?

Those with lengthy memories in Ottawa will recall the ‘gut-broiling’ sting of that time as it was the Senators doing somewhat ‘Leafy’ things in that run of failures.

Toronto checker Steven Lorentz, a savvy off-season signing, grew up watching his hometown Leafs dominate. “I grew up watching this series,” said Lorentz to Sportsnet. “I just remember being a little kid, having a mini-stick net right in front of the TV. And when there was a TV timeout or something like that, I just started firing the ball into the net. Now, to be able to do this, I still feel like I’m that eight-year-old kid watching on TV. But I get to sit on the bench for the big boys and go put my effort in out there.”

But, as they say, that was then and this is now.

Expectations?

Once again, they rest at the skates of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Buds finished atop the Atlantic Division this season, a clear 11 points ahead of their provincial brothers (both have a meaningless final game to play before the playoffs begin).

They are the favourites, and they should win this series. But the ante is higher than its ever been, here in the spring of 2025. A loss to Ottawa in the opening round isn’t on the same level as losing to the Floridas or the Bostons out there.

Nope, it’s well above and beyond that due to national focus.

Thoughts of a loss to Ottawa are undoubtedly already poking into the part of the brain that stores confidence and belief-in-self. Sports psychologists must be perched on high-alert in the provincial Capital.

Meantime Ottawa is playing with house money. You don’t need reminding that this is an organization that has absolutely stunk since 2017. Just making it to the NHL’s post-season is rewarding enough for the Senators’ oft-gutted fan base. And an added win over Toronto would be gravy.

And it would taste pretty damn good.

MATTHEWS VS. TKACHUK:

Brady Tkachuk is not Ottawa’s most talented player (save that for Tim Stutzle or Jake Sanderson), but he’s certainly its most important.

Auston Matthews carries both mantles for Toronto.

What a head-to-head here.

A little more fuel to the fire for you – Brady and Auston have become rather good friends. If you think differently, check out the locker-room footage following that 4 Nations win by the Americans over Canada a few months ago.

Again though – that was then and this is now.

If either team is going to break through, expectation and reality say either Auston or Brady are leading the charge.

Matthews has not been a difference-maker in the playoffs yet; Tkachuk is getting his first taste.

Matthews needs to score; Tkachuk needs to set the tone. It’ll be interesting to see how tight the offficials call this one. Historically, you get away with a ton more in the post-season. Tkachuk will likely need that to remain unchanged.

This promises to be a battle worth watching unfold.

WHO HOLDS THE EDGE IN ROSTER MUSCLE?:

Technically if you want to look at it this way, Ottawa holds an edge in the ‘best-player-in-each-zone’ class.

Give a slight edge to Linus Ullmark in goal over Game 1 starter Anthony Stolarz and give another wee edge to the flowering Sanderson on the blue-line over fellows like Morgan Rielly or Chris Tanev.

We just discussed Tkachuk and Matthews (up front) but the bottom line is that Ottawa doesn’t have a 60-goal scorer in its line-up or a 100-point man like Mitchell Marner. Edge, Toronto there.

Depth-wise this isn’t really close.

If you add 45-goal scorer Willy Nylander, all-around (faceoffs, defence, scoring) specialist John Tavares (38 goals) and breakout stud Matthew Knies (29 goals and 240-lbs.), Toronto’s locked and loaded for bear.

Lorentz was a terrific addition (five game-winners this season), while Max Domi and Bobby McMann give the Leafs some grit. Don’t count out Scott Laughton too, brought over from Philly at the trade deadline.

Stutzle is still growing for Ottawa and will be counted on to grow even quicker against Toronto. Drake Batherson’s had a wonderful year, and he’ll carry a big load for the Senators who don’t score a lot.

The bluelines are comparable.

The Leafs paid big-time to bring in Tanev and it’ll be his time to cash the chips in when the games begin this weekend.

Rielly remains their go-to guy.

Brandon Carlo was a marvelous grab from the Bruins at the deadline. Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson should be ready to go on Sunday. This is a much-improved back end from previous years.

The growth spurt in Sanderson can’t be under-estimated. Ottawa hasn’t had a better get-the-puck-out-of-the-zone-quick guy since Wade Redden.

Artem Zub and Nick Jensen provide stability. They’ll need to keep up with Toronto’s head-spinning attack.

Thomas Chabot’s had a particularly good year. For a guy who’s played 512 games in the league, the playoffs are finally here after nearly nine seasons.

Tyler Kleven and Travis Hamonic provide depth but are prone to mistakes (although Kleven’s improved this year).

COACHES ARE COMPARABLE:

The fact remains that both Craig Berube and Travis Green have enjoyed superb years.

Much was expected from Berube who rallied his St. Louis Blues to a shocker of a Cup win in 2019. Not as much was expected from Green who’s bounced around a bit behind the bench and many proclaimed as an ‘underwhelming’ pick to lead Ottawa.

Green, though, likely receives coach-of-the-year mentions for altering the Senators terrible team-defence approach the previous seven years. This is a responsible group and a far cry from what was seen in the recent past.

HOME CROWD A FACTOR:

Not really.

Neither is the season record where Ottawa took all three games against the Leafs. History indicates it doesn’t matter much.

No doubt there will be a near-split among jersey-wearers here in Ottawa for Games 3 and 4. (Has there been another ham-fisted moratorium on Leaf jerseys yet?)

Toronto’s home ice challenge will be getting lower-bowl patrons back to their seats before the 10-minute mark of each period.

One certainty – the Ottawa rink will louder than Toronto’s . . . take that any way you like.

EL PREDICTO SAYS:

El Predicto says . . . enjoy the first Battle of Ontario since 2004.

“Exciting is probably downplaying it a little bit,” said Travis Green. “I think it’s going to be great for the province. The Battle of Ontario is well known, and we haven’t been in the playoffs for a long time and it’s going to be exciting.”

thegrossgame@yahoo.com