Is the Great 8 the only thing standing in the way of qualifying for the great eight?
While likely not completely accurate, it sure makes for an awe-inspiring lede. (Withholding judgement on that for now . . .).
But seriously people, when you truly break it down, is it Alex Ovechkin (the Great 8) and his chase for Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record that presents the biggest obstacle between the Ottawa Senators and a (finally) playoff spot?
It certainly played out that way last season. Not only for Ottawa, but for Detroit, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Philly, Montreal, New Jersey and Columbus. To refresh your memory – those were the eight clubs that failed to qualify as Ovie and the Capitals snagged the very last post-season seeding on the very last day of the year.
This was a stinger, particularly for Detroit who tied the Caps in points with 91, but Washington held the tiebreaker.
So, to quickly refresh on the math – eight teams get into the dance in the Eastern Conference, eight teams sit it out.
Indeed, the pickings are slim.
And while there’s been some verbal jousting – mostly among media types – about revamping the playoff format to let more in come springtime, the league and Commissioner Gary Bettman maintains they’re more than content the way things are. Which indicates that the pickings will remain slim for the foreseeable future.
This is where things become demanding for those standing on the doorstep.
Because realistically when you look at who got in in the East in 2023-24, how many of these entities do you expect to NOT make it again in 2024-25?
Let’s pretend we’re at the gym and run the rack.
The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup. There could be a drop-off here as the Cats lost some bodies on the blueline – most significant of those being Brandon Montour who signed out West. But (again: realistically) when you still have the best all-around forward in the game in Aleksander Barkov, a mean-spirited and uber-talented Matthew Tkachuk, 57-goal signee Sam Reinhart and the best clutch stopper in the game in Sergei Bobrovsky, a non-playoff season would be stunning (and not believable).
The New York Rangers finished atop the league standings. With a stacked roster – at every position – the Rangers aren’t going anywhere. Perhaps further in the playoffs this season but as far as missing out? Not happening.
Carolina grabbed second overall in the East in 2024. The Canes lost some pretty capable bodies on defence. (Again: realistically) They’re not skipping out come spring. Too many exceptionally good parts here to see a tumble.
The Boston Bruins did a touch of re-shaping this off-season. Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm come over from the West as Jake DeBrusk leaves. Brad Marchand continues to tick along, despite undergoing three separate surgeries this summer. Boston’s making the playoffs.
Toronto finished just behind the B’s in the conference. GM Brad Treliving bolstered the defence with a couple of signings; Chris Tanev being the most consequential. There’s also a guy named Auston Matthews who seems destined for another 50+ goal year.
Toronto’s in.
While everyone waits patiently (except when you’re a non-playoff organization) for the Tampa Bay Lightning to fade, ‘everyone’ is probably going to have to wait a bit longer. The Bolts lost Steven Stamkos yet replaced him with Jake Guentzel. Not much – of any – of a dwindle there. Tampa’s there as well.
That makes it six.
Two spots remain.
And here’s where the (again: realistically) picture gets appealing to the outcasts.
The aforementioned Caps grabbed spot No. 8 last season; the New York Islanders grabbed spot No. 7.
Like in my favourite flick Jaws, there’s blood in the water.
Unlike Jaws, there’s not one, but several sharks circling.
Your Senators are one of the predators, but so too are Buffalo and the Red Wings.
And Pittsburgh.
And a hugely improved New Jersey Devils team.
Even the Capitals will be competing again. Washington’s add-ons include Jakob Chychrun, an underrated Matt Roy and – as kind of a project-piece – Pierre-Luc Dubois. (Dubois is at Last Chance Saloon here, but the word is that if anyone can get this talent turned around, it’s Caps’ coach Spencer Carbery.)
Montreal’s likely to improve under Marty St. Louis. A post-season position might be a bit out of reach though, at this juncture.
So, here’s what we have.
There are two seats at the table available (say it: ‘realistically’) and there are, likely, six hungry diners standing in line.
I’m going to claim a seat for the Devils. Barring injury, this could be the most upgraded club on the links.
That leaves one spot.
As Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada guru Elliotte Friedman opined this week in his podcast, Buffalo “has to” make the playoffs this year. Elliotte also predicted your Senators would get in.
Welcome to Whac-A-Mole, NHL style.
thegrossgame@yahoo.com
Photo: Alex Ovechkin via USAToday. Ottawa Senators, CourtesyTHN
