This is Sergio Marchi’s final article in the weekly series on the federal election.
Former Prime Minister John Turner was fond of saying on election night that, “The people are always right!”
Well, rightly or wrongly, Canadians have spoken. They chose to extend Trudeau’s minority reign. However, in their collective wisdom, the voters confirmed how unnecessary this election really was by electing essentially the same Parliament as before. Back to the future!
Moreover, in the process, they denied Trudeau the majority he sought; they did not vote for a Conservative government; they refused to grant a single seat to the People’s Party; they voted against the Green Party Leader; they chose not to offer the seat bump that both the NDP and Bloc were hoping for; they tripped up Premier Legault’s very public urgings to vote in a Conservative minority; and despite Jody Wilson-Raybauld repeatedly body-slamming the PM over the SNC Lavalin, the issue proved to be inconsequential.
So, after a campaign of endless political speeches, it seemed that the voters had a lot to say on election night. I believe they were incredibly astute in their judgement. They also set in motion potential leadership rumblings.
In looking at the outcome of another Liberal minority government, let me highlight a few issues that I believe converged to produce the results we got.
First, people were frustrated right until the end that the PM called an unnecessary, early election. The PM saw an opportunity for a majority, and he gambled. He lost the bet. He was unable to provide voters with a clear, coherent rationale for consulting the people at this time. Naturally, he couldn’t tell them the real reason that motivated him to role the dice. Accordingly, he left himself vulnerable to attacks from all the parties, the media, and ultimately the public. He was particularly hampered by this vulnerability in the early days of the campaign, where he was pushed off balance by the other leaders. Had he laid out a believable and credible rationale, and based on his platform, I believe he would have received a majority mandate.
Second, O’Toole blundered on Covid by not urging mandatory vaccines. The vast majority of Canadians support a vaccine passport, so O’Toole was clearly on the wrong side. He wildly misread the public mood. He also refused to confirm how many of his candidates were vaccinated, and he would not criticize Premier Kenny for the Corona crisis in his province. He looked weak and cagey on an issue that the public demanded clarity. Trudeau benefited hugely from this miscalculation. As well, it allowed the PM to speak to the poor management of the pandemic by Conservative Premiers. Not surprisingly, Covid was the overarching issue of the campaign.
Third, O’Toole misfired (sorry for the pun!) on the gun issue. He proposed to repeal parts of the firearm legislation, and this caused grave concern in many communities, especially in our major cities, where gun violence has been a particular problem. Again, he badly misread the public.The Tory leader ended up reversing his position, but the damage was done. He was pinned to the gun lobby, and Canadians were not prepared to trust him on his u-turn
Fourth, Trudeau clearly won the debate on childcare. His plan is very popular with working families, and the provinces. O’Toole had promised to rip up the agreements that the federal government had signed with the provinces, and offered his own tax credit alternative. The public didn’t buy it, and opted to stay the course with the Liberals.
Finally, there was much said about the economy, inflation, and deficit spending. But this did not appear to be a prominent driver of votes, as is usually the case in campaigns. Pocket book voting traditionally is a powerful factor. But on reflection, the public seemed to condone the massive spending of the last two years as necessary tools with which to combat the threat of Covid to people’s lives. Canadians preferred the assistance to keep them on their feet, rather than crawling out of the pandemic on their knees.
The public verdict will also no doubt create leadership discussions and troubles in a number of the parties;
A word about the number crunchers. Like previous election battles, there was a litany of public polls released during the last 36 days. To their credit, on the whole, the pollsters got it right. They predicted a minority government, and a 30-seat lead for the Liberals — and that’s what we got.
Finally, the nastiness of the campaign is likely to mar the next Parliament. Feelings and differences will still be raw and some leaders will be desperate in their attacks, given their leadership worries. That would be unfortunate. The country is still in the grips of the pandemic’s fourth wave, and there are many critical issues that require collaboration and not confrontation. It’s my hope that cooler heads will prevail, especially after a campaign that saw too much verbal abuse and in some cases, physical altercations. But I remain skeptical.
The prime minister I served with, Jean Chretien, once said that, “The art of politics is learning to walk with your back to the wall, your elbows high, and a smile on your face. It’s a survival game played under the glare of lights”.
On September 20th, Canadians closed the lights on another election. The morning after, the sun was shinning bright in the nation’s capital, people were off to work, and kids walked to school. Canadians, in other words, easily moved on from this campaign and resumed their lives.
Meanwhile, the lights are still burning bright for politicians and political pundits, who are still busy analyzing the what-ifs and next steps. For them, this campaign results will live on. Eventually, new political strategies will be established, new issues will surface, and new leaders will emerge. Politics will continue to reinvent itself, while Canada continues to be the stable and generous country that is envied by so many people around the globe.
The Hon. Sergio Marchi served as an elected City Councillor, Member of Parliament, Minister and Ambassador.
Header image: via CBC
