While Missouri is recognized as the Show Me State, Ottawa can also hold that claim.
Check.
Mate.
We’re talking about the Ottawa Senators here. In 2024-25 – a season that takes off in a week – the local hockey team is clearly in a state of ‘show me.’
And pronto.
The Senators face off against the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers for Game 1 next Thursday (Oct. 10th). The first few weeks will tell us plenty as to whether all those adjustments and tweaks Steve Staios and Michael Andlauer have made will gather the desired results.
Show me?
You bet.
Because Ottawa’s first leg(s) out of the gate the last several seasons have been deplorable.
There’s a commonly used statistic around the NHL that dictates if your club is out of the hunt come American Thanksgiving, chances are your chances aren’t good for the post-season. Fact is – since this calculator’s been put to work – teams that hold a playoff position at that critical time (Nov. 28th this year) have a near 77 per cent success rate at making it into the playoffs.
General math tells us that 23 per cent just aren’t great odds for success to those on the outside.
Stink it up for less-than the first two months of the year, as Ottawa’s done consistently since its last playoff appearance in 2017, and it’s pretty much – gone baby gone.
So then, who’s on board here?
The experts are kind of mixed in this regard. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman’s said he thinks Ottawa will push the right buttons and finally make the leap; this while TSN’s Mike Johnson (one of my relatively new favourite analysts) and director of scouting Craig Button are skeptical.
Per this week’s Big Question segment – the two bantered on as to whether Ottawa’s core has what it takes to get in.
“Do they have enough, with their core group? I am going to answer it: no. I think changes need to be made,” said Button.
The former Calgary GM went on to say that while the Senators’ core is referred to as ‘young,’ that’s not really the case anymore.
“They’re not young anymore. And what indication, what results have we seen from that group? That would be none.”
And Johnson agreed.
“If you’re in your third or fourth year in the NHL, you’re not young anymore . . . and I’m talking right from the top, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot.
“This is it for this group. You have to show that to play – not just to put up points – but to win and to be competitive into the spring,” he said.
Others chirping in? The Athletic has Ottawa at a 35 per cent rate to hop into the playoffs (at roughly a 90-point season); The Hockey News yearbook has the Senators finishing seventh in the Atlantic Division (that’d be well out of the playoff hunt); while THN’s Adam Proteau suggested Ottawa will latch onto a spot by finishing fourth in the division (that at the expense of perennial playoff-maker Tampa Bay).
Sports Illustrated has the Maple Leafs winning the division and added: “It’s going to be a tight race in the Atlantic and five teams may be playoff-bound” . . . without naming names.
The betting site FanDuel lists Florida as the best in show in the Atlantic at +230, followed by Toronto (+290), Tampa (+440), Boston (+500), then Ottawa (+1000).
Sportsnet put together a nice, concise round-up on the division and who could be in and who might drop out. Solid work on outlining Ottawa’s early schedule (it’ll be key) and how that likely plays into a good start prior to Thanksgiving. The Senators have 22 games before the U.S. holiday. Twelve are at home, 10 on the road.
Perhaps the biggest advantage is that Ottawa has only one back-to-back situation during that time. By comparison, Toronto suffers through five.
The website also draws into consideration the time-honoured ‘coach bump,’ where teams sporting brand new coaches tend to be on their best behaviour and work a little bit harder with a fresh face behind the bench.
All that to say, Ottawa has to start quick and effectively.
All can agree to that.
Next week, this corner will set into stone its own predictions and analysis and thoughts on the division.
As you wait with bated breath for that, keep in mind we picked both Florida and Boston to be out of the playoffs last season and had Toronto as the Stanley Cup champs.
So, while we’re not always entirely accurate over here, we’re always (sometimes) entertaining.
Stay tuned.
thegrossgame@yahoo.com
Photo: Courtesy NHL.com/ Sydney D’Amico/@Senators Digital Editorial Coordinator