The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, and many bettors are starting to gather relevant information about the probable derby contenders to help them decide whom to bet.
One of the relevant data they are after is the post position of the competitors. The post position is the stall number of horses at the starting gate. It is the location where each contender stands at the beginning of the race.
And many believe, based on historical facts, that a horse's post position impacts his chances of winning. So, that's what we will discuss below, the relevance of post position in the Kentucky Derby.
The History Of Post Position At The Kentucky Derby
Before the utilization of post position, contenders of the Kentucky Derby were lined up behind a series of wires. It was a challenging task to keep the horses lined up correctly. Thus, it resulted in unfair positioning.
And because the horses were only separated with wires, some unruly thoroughbreds are kicking and bumping other contenders before the race. When 1930 came, the first starting gate was launched in the Kentucky Derby race.
Starting gates have been used in every Kentucky Derby race since then, improving the game's fairness. But the dilemma of the Kentucky Derby organization didn't end there as the only available starting gate for the race was 14-horse gates.
Since the Kentucky Derby has 20 contenders, they need to use two of these 14-horse starting gates to line up the competitors at the beginning of the racetrack. Only in 2020 was the 20-horse gate launched.
The decision to use a bigger gate ensures the safety of the thoroughbreds and their jockeys participating in the race. Using a bigger gate removes the space between the auxiliary and the main, causing fights between the outside horses. Outside horses tend to fight over the rail position to gain a more significant break from the main gate.
How Important Is Post Position in Kentucky Derby
Post position has become a one-factor bettors look into when betting on the Kentucky Derby. Throughout history, there has been a clear connection between the horse's post position and his chances of winning.
For that reason, the post position of the Kentucky Derby contenders is the last piece of handicapping data bettors need to help them decide which horse deserves their bet. That's also why bettors closely monitor the post-position draw days before the Kentucky Derby race.
The post position of the race also impacts the betting odds of the Kentucky Derby. Each contender's odds can change after the post-position draw. Based on the observation made in 2017, some slight changes in the favorite horses' odds were noted.
Meanwhile, the same can't be said for contenders with longer odds. That said, regularly checking the odds is advised, especially before and after the post-position draw. You can check Fanduel KY Derby odds for a more current update of the contender's odds before and after the draw.
The Post Position Trend
Aside from affecting the odds and being one of the essential data bettors need in handicapping, post position has also become a trend in the Kentucky Derby. Call it luck or coincidence, but many believe that post position can impact the race's outcome.
For instance, posts 1 and 20 have been avoided by many horsemen throughout the years. It is because horses start in position one and must work harder to run into the inner rail. The horse needs to break quickly to get ahead of the other competitors to avoid being shuffled back inside, or he needs to be brought back to avoid being compressed.
The same goes for position 20. The thoroughbred will need to work double hard and start the race with early speed to acquire a better position on the track, or else he'll be squeezed far back and lose ground.
Meanwhile, the post-position trend tells bettors to avoid these two post-positions and post-position number 17, which hasn't produced any winners since. It has been said that posts 5 to 10 are the best post positions based on trends throughout Kentucky Derby history.
Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw
The drawing of post positions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby is expected to be on Monday or Tuesday before the race on May 6, 2023, Saturday. As was mentioned earlier, this event is vital for bettors as the money lines could shift depending on the outcome of the draw.
So, if you are betting for this year's Kentucky Derby, you must stay tuned and watch out for the post-position announcement before the big event. The current system used in drawing post positions for the Kentucky Derby is based on the traditional blind draw.
The traditional blind draw allows the equestrians to draw numbers from one to 20. Whatever number a horseman gets will be his horse's gate number. For instance, if you are a horseman and get number 6 during the draw, your horse will have the post-position 6.
In Conclusion
Post position has a significant impact on the outcome of the race. Therefore, bettors will find value in looking into the Kentucky Derby horse's post position. Moreover, it's still highly recommended to research how post positions have impacted past Kentucky Derby races and if you can gather additional information to increase your chance of winning.