Upcoming Trade Deadline Could Impact Ottawa’s Playoff Chances Next Season

The time has come for the Ottawa Senators to make a decision.

Sitting outside looking in on the NHL playoffs, the once promising 2023 season now faces a new challenge: the decision of buying assets or selling them. Booking a ticket to the playoffs from being a top team in the division is a long-gone thought, but there is (albeit) slim hope that the Senators can reach the postseason through the wild card.

Ottawa has games in hand over the New York Islanders, Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals. Currently (as of February 21), the Islanders and Panthers hold the top two seeds for the wild card. Ottawa are 7-points back of New York and 6-points back of Florida. Looking at the Sens' schedule, Ottawa has two more games against the Panthers but will not have a date with the Islanders until next season.

Digging deeper into Ottawa's (remaining) schedule, the Senators also don't own their own fate against the Capitals. This means that of the three teams in which the Sens have games in-hand on (for the Wild Card), Ottawa can only help themselves against the Panthers. Even if Ottawa were to steal two victories (in regulation) against the Panthers, that means Ottawa would be 2-points back of Florida near the end of the regular season. Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Detroit are all reachable for the Senators as well, but the Pens and Sabres have 2-games in-hand, while the Red Wings have one-game in hand.

So, what does this mean for Ottawa? We've seen flashes of brilliance, but the combination of injuries and poor luck has resulted in a season where the Senators will (most) likely miss the playoffs. With the looming trade deadline, it only makes sense for the Sens to be buyers.

But why would General Manager Pierre Dorion flirt with being a buyer at the deadline if the Senators won't play postseason hockey? The simple answer is the future. Players like Hamonic, Brassard and Watson are all unrestricted free agents that Ottawa could replace from Belleville. Zaitsev and Gambrell are two players Ottawa will also look to move as well, which means Ottawa has seemingly 5 skaters to replace for next year. Other players like Joseph and Kelly are debatable, but the return of Norris (and even Kastelic) will help Ottawa become stronger next year. 

Focusing on an extension with RFA Alex DeBrincat is a move Dorion needs to get finalized sooner, rather than later as well.

The answer for Dorion seems to be in Belleville. Offloading Zaitsev's contract should be Dorion's number one priority, but that will come with moving potential draft picks. For the upcoming 2023 draft, the Senators' 1st and 2nd round picks are untouchable. From there, pairing Zaitsev with a 4th and potentially future pick in 2024 could help Ottawa's salary concerns as well.

It's evident that Ottawa has a solid foundation where they can build from within. The time has come for Ottawa to potentially buy assets at the deadline but it's clear they aren't sellers. Next season will be a year of promotion for Belleville, as the Senators' top picks will find themselves in the lineup after certain players are dumped by Ottawa's front office.

It will be interesting to see how potential moves will impact Ottawa's odds on NHL betting sites. Ottawa has built a core, finally. The outlook is clear, but the locker room needs renovating.

The solution is simple, but the steps needed to get there are complicated. One thing is for certain, Ottawa's next opening-night lineup will be vastly different. And while the Sens may not want to look too far ahead, the upcoming trade deadline could set the team up for success in 2024.

Photo: Courtesy NYPost